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The UN Security Council held its first secret straw poll on July 30, 2026, among seven candidates to succeed Secretary-General António Guterres, whose term ends December 31, 2026.

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Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan leads with 10 “encourage” votes, followed by Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (9 votes) and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi (7 votes).

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Three candidates — Grynspan, Michelle Bachelet, and María Fernanda Espinosa — are outspoken supporters of promoting abortion on the international stage.

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The European Union pressed candidates for commitments on abortion, gender ideology, and climate policy, while the United States did not take part in the public dialogues.

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UN agencies such as UNFPA, UN Women, and the WHO operate under the Secretary-General’s political authority, giving the outcome significance far beyond a single personnel decision.

The UN Security Council has held the first secret straw poll among all seven candidates for the position of UN Secretary-General, intended to select a successor to António Guterres, whose second term ends on December 31.

Unofficial results, which leaked to the press despite the formal confidentiality of the vote, show Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) leading with 10 “encourage” votes, ahead of Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (Guyana, 9 votes) and Rafael Grossi (Argentina, 7 votes).

On July 23, a public debate involving the six candidates in the race at that time was held in the UN General Assembly hall, organized by General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock in cooperation with Bloomberg.

The day after the debate, Uganda put forward a seventh candidate — Olara Otunnu, a former UN Under-Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict, who received the lowest level of support of all the candidates in the first straw poll.

Among those seeking the office are three women who support promoting abortion on the international stage: Michelle Bachelet of Chile, María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, and Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica.

The selection process remains largely confidential: after further rounds of the secret straw poll in the Security Council, a closed-door recommendation will follow, and then, in keeping with established practice, a vote by acclamation in the General Assembly.

Unlike the European Union, the government of the United States did not actively take part in the public dialogues with the candidates held at the General Assembly.

The selection procedure: the first straw poll now behind us

The second five-year term of the current UN Secretary-General, Portuguese national António Guterres, ends on December 31, 2026. Seven candidates are competing to succeed him: Michelle Bachelet (Chile), María Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador), Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina), Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica), Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (Guyana), Macky Sall (Senegal), and Olara Otunnu of Uganda (put forward last, on July 24).

On July 23, a public debate involving the six candidates in the race at that time was held in the UN General Assembly hall in New York, titled “UN Town Hall: The Next Secretary-General,” organized by General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock in cooperation with Bloomberg and moderated by journalists from the news agency.

In line with established practice, on July 30, 2026, the fifteen members of the Security Council took part in the first secret straw poll, in which each of them indicated, for every candidate, whether they were “encouraging,” “discouraging,” or expressing “no opinion.” The results formally remain confidential, although some of them have leaked to the press:

  • Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) — 10 “encourage” votes (leader of the first round)
  • Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (Guyana) — 9 “encourage” votes
  • Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina) — 7 “encourage” votes
  • Michelle Bachelet (Chile) — 6 “encourage” votes, 5 “discourage,” 4 “no opinion”
  • Macky Sall (Senegal) — 6 “encourage” votes, 7 “discourage,” 2 “no opinion”
  • María Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador) — 5 “encourage” votes, 2 “discourage,” 8 “no opinion”
  • Olara Otunnu (Uganda) — 2 “encourage” votes, 5 “discourage,” 8 “no opinion” (the lowest level of support of all the candidates)

The process will be repeated in successive rounds until a candidate emerges who enjoys the support of a majority of the Council’s members and faces no objection from any of the five permanent members holding the right of veto: the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. Based on the two most recent selection procedures, from 2007 and 2016, the Security Council is expected to submit its final recommendation to the General Assembly by October 2026.

The entire remainder of the process remains largely confidential: once the rounds of the secret straw poll in the Security Council are complete, that body will issue a closed-door recommendation, followed, if necessary, by a closed vote in the General Assembly. Since 1966, every UN Secretary-General has ultimately been confirmed by the General Assembly by acclamation, after the closed-door consultation procedure has run its course.

The Secretary-General’s powers

Under the Charter of the United Nations, the Secretary-General serves as the organization’s chief administrative officer, responsible for its efficient functioning. In practice, this role has expanded considerably in recent decades. As the UN budget has grown, successive Secretaries-General have accumulated ever-greater powers and control over the organization’s resources. Since the early 2000s, the office has increasingly functioned less as a purely administrative post and more like that of a political leader with his or her own policy agenda — particularly in debates on social policy, including abortion and gender ideology.

The change of Secretary-General offers the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump an opportunity to shift the direction of this policy, although it is not clear whether the American side sought advance commitments from the candidates on this front. While the European Union and left-leaning governments actively sought public assurances from the candidates that they would continue policies supporting abortion, gender ideology, hate-speech regulation, and climate policy, the United States government did not take part in any of the public dialogues with the candidates held at the General Assembly.

The European Union’s delegation to the UN stated that the organization needs a leader capable of building trust, reducing polarization, and defending the UN Charter. The EU delegation stressed that only 1% of UN system spending is allocated to human-rights mandates. The EU delegation declared its concern over “normative attacks on human rights” and asked every candidate for their position on this issue.

Candidate profiles

Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) — 10 “encourage” votes, leader after the first straw poll

Rebeca Grynspan — an economist born in San José to a family of Jewish refugees — served as vice president of Costa Rica and minister of housing from 1994 to 1998. She later headed the UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean, served as UNDP deputy administrator (2010–2014), and was secretary-general of the Ibero-American Conference (2014–2021). Since September 2021, she has been secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the first woman to hold that position in the institution’s 60-year history. In that role, she has coordinated the UN’s Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance, among other things, and took part in negotiations enabling the export of grain from Ukraine. In the Security Council’s first straw poll, she received the highest level of support of all seven candidates — 10 “encourage” votes.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (Guyana) — 9 “encourage” votes in the first straw poll

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett — born in the Indigenous village of Santa Rosa in the Barima-Waini region, she became the first Indigenous Guyanese to hold the post of the country’s minister of foreign affairs (2008–2015), having previously served as minister of Amerindian affairs (2001–2008). After a change of government in 2015, she worked at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Geneva. Since 2020, she has been Guyana’s permanent representative to the UN in New York, where she led her country’s delegation during its term on the Security Council (2024–2025) and chaired the Group of 77 and China. As Guyana’s permanent representative, she drew attention to restricted access to “reproductive care” for women in the Gaza Strip and to migration as an issue requiring international cooperation. She is married with two children. In the first straw poll, she received 9 “encourage” votes, the second-best result.

Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina) — 7 “encourage” votes in the first straw poll

Rafael Mariano Grossi — an Argentine diplomat with more than 40 years of experience in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, holds a doctorate in international relations from the Graduate Institute in Geneva. Since December 2019, he has headed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), where his mandate was unanimously extended for a second four-year term in 2023. He previously served, among other roles, as Argentina’s ambassador to Austria, chief of cabinet at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and twice as chair of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. As head of the IAEA, he has overseen, among other things, the verification of Iran’s nuclear activities and the safety mission at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. He is married with eight children. In the first straw poll, he received 7 “encourage” votes, placing third.

Michelle Bachelet (Chile) — 6 “encourage” votes in the first straw poll

Michelle Bachelet — a pediatrician by training, was imprisoned and lived in exile in her youth during the rule of Augusto Pinochet. She served twice as president of Chile (2006–2010 and 2014–2018), the first woman to hold that office in the country’s history. From 2010 to 2013, she was the first executive director of UN Women, and from 2018 to 2023 she served as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. In 2017, during her second presidential term, she brought about the repeal of Chile’s total ban on abortion and the introduction of legal abortion in three circumstances. Under her leadership, Chile also legalized same-sex unions (2015). As UN High Commissioner, she publicly criticized the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson (2022). Chile’s new government withdrew its support for her candidacy in March 2026. In the first straw poll, she received 6 “encourage” votes, 5 “discourage,” and 4 “no opinion.”

Macky Sall (Senegal) — 6 “encourage” votes in the first straw poll

Macky Sall — a geological engineer by training, served as president of Senegal from 2012 to 2024, having previously served as prime minister (2004–2007) and speaker of the National Assembly (2007–2008). During his presidency, he also chaired the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). As president of Senegal, he publicly defended keeping homosexuality criminalized in the face of international pressure, arguing that states should not impose their values on one another. His candidacy for Secretary-General was put forward by Burundi in March 2026 — Senegal itself did not officially endorse it until July 2026. Sall is the only African candidate in the race. In the first straw poll, he received 6 “encourage” votes and 7 “discourage” — the most votes against of any candidate.

María Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador) — 5 “encourage” votes in the first straw poll

María Fernanda Espinosa — a diplomat, poet, and former minister, twice headed Ecuador’s ministry of foreign affairs (2007–2008 and 2017–2018) and its ministry of national defense (2012–2014). From 2018 to 2019, she was president of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly — the fourth woman and the first Latin American to hold that office. After her term ended, she joined the steering committee of the Generation Equality Forum. During her hearing before the General Assembly, she voiced concern over “normative attacks” on the rights of women and girls and on gender equality. In the first straw poll, she received 5 “encourage” votes, 2 “discourage,” and 8 “no opinion.”

Olara Otunnu (Uganda) — 2 “encourage” votes in the first straw poll

Olara Otunnu — born on September 6, 1950, in Gulu District in northern Uganda, studied law at Makerere University. After fleeing the regime of Idi Amin, he continued his education at Oxford and at Harvard Law School. From 1980 to 1985, he was Uganda’s permanent representative to the UN, and from 1985 to 1986 he served as foreign minister, playing a significant role in reaching the Nairobi peace agreement. As president of the Security Council in December 1981, he introduced the secret-straw-poll procedure for selecting the Secretary-General still used today, known as the “Otunnu formula.” From 1990 to 1998, he headed the International Peace Academy, and from 1998 to 2005 he was the first UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict. After returning to domestic politics, he took the helm of the Uganda People’s Congress and ran for president of Uganda in 2011. His candidacy for Secretary-General was put forward by Uganda on July 24, 2026 — making him the seventh and oldest (75) candidate in the race. His work to date has focused on protecting children in armed conflict and peacebuilding. In the first straw poll, he received the lowest level of support of any candidate: 2 “encourage” votes, 5 “discourage,” and 8 “no opinion.”

The debate and the first straw poll

During the July 23 debate, the candidates answered questions from the moderators and from representatives of member states, non-governmental organizations, and UN staff. The questions concerned, among other things, reform of the Security Council, the organization’s liquidity crisis, the Secretary-General’s role in relation to armed conflicts, the regulation of artificial intelligence, and the role of the private sector. Issues related to abortion or “sexual and reproductive rights” were not the subject of direct questions from the moderators during this part of the debate.

The day after Olara Otunnu’s candidacy was submitted, on July 30, 2026, the Security Council held the first secret straw poll among all seven candidates, opening the confidential phase of the selection process. Further rounds of the straw poll are expected in the coming weeks, as the field of candidates is narrowed.

In keeping with historical practice, once all the rounds of the secret straw poll in the Security Council are complete and a candidate has emerged who faces no objection from any of the five permanent members, the General Assembly will confirm the new Secretary-General, who will take office on January 1, 2027, for a five-year term.

Expert commentary

This year’s slate of candidates shows clearly that the office of UN Secretary-General long ago ceased to be the purely administrative function described in the Charter of the United Nations. Who takes the office of Secretary-General has a direct bearing on the direction the entire UN bureaucracy will take. Agencies such as the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), UN Women, and the World Health Organization (WHO) operate under the Secretary-General’s political authority, and it is through these very agencies that concepts such as “sexual and reproductive rights” have for years been making their way into the organization’s policy documents, despite the absence of any consent from member states expressed in treaties. The results of the first straw poll show that the race remains open — the coming rounds in the Security Council and the decision of the five permanent members holding the right of veto will carry significance reaching far beyond the personal nomination itself, notes Julia Książek of the Ordo Iuris Center for International Law.

Translated using Claude.ai

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Source of cover photo: iStock